New gas furnace + new AC
- Installed
- $13,000$10,200–$15,900
- Energy per year
- $1,760Baseline
- 15-year total
- $39,400
- Payback
- Baseline
Heat pump or new furnace and AC?
For Eversource (NSTAR Electric) customers in Massachusetts, on the utility's current tariff, local weather and current rebates.
Electricity
26.0¢/kWh
-14% vs. Massachusetts average
Gas, winter
$2.46/therm
Massachusetts average (EIA)
Climate
5,811
heating degree days · Jamaica Plain
Rebates
up to $7,950
Mass Save air-source heat pump rebate
Our estimate for this home
A high-efficiency cold-climate heat pump comes out ahead
A high-efficiency cold-climate heat pump comes out ahead here even with a high quote: about $11,900 less than a new furnace and AC over 15 years at typical prices, and $530 a year less to run.
Total cost over 15 years
Installed cost plus energy, year by year. Hover or tap the chart to compare.
- New gas furnace + new AC
- Heat pump (replaces both)
- High-efficiency cold-climate heat pump
Show as a table
| Option | Installed cost (typical, range, after rebates) | Energy cost per year | 15-year total | Payback vs. like-for-like |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New gas furnace + new AC | $13,000 $10,200–$15,900 |
$1,760 |
$39,400 | Baseline |
| Heat pump (replaces both) | $13,000 $9,100–$17,000 |
$1,580 saves $180/yr |
$36,700 | Same price up front, cheaper to run |
| High-efficiency cold-climate heat pump Lowest 15-year cost | $9,000 $4,500–$14,700 after $7,950 rebate |
$1,230 saves $530/yr |
$27,400 | Cheaper up front and to run |
What this is based on
- Electricity: Greater Boston Residential R-1 (A1) tariff for Eversource (NSTAR Electric), effective 2026-02-01, from the U.S. Utility Rate Database, applied tier by tier to the extra kWh.
- Weather: Jamaica Plain (5,811 heating and 827 cooling degree days a year, 1991-2020).
- Gas: Massachusetts average residential price over the last five winter months (EIA), $2.46/therm.
- Massachusetts HVAC installer wages are 27% above the U.S. median (BLS), so installed prices are scaled by 1.13.
- Energy use for heating and cooling:
- New gas furnace + new AC: 1,555 kWh and 555 therms a year for heating and cooling
- Heat pump (replaces both): 6,261 kWh a year for heating and cooling
- High-efficiency cold-climate heat pump: 4,862 kWh a year for heating and cooling
Rebates
- Mass Save air-source heat pump rebate
(checked 2026-11-08, valid to 2026-12-31)
ENERGY STAR Cold Climate equipment, Mass Save installer network. Gas-heated homes qualify through a Mass Save gas sponsor (Berkshire Gas, Eversource, Liberty, National Grid, Unitil); municipal gas customers do not. Whole-home requires the home to be sufficiently weatherized. - Municipal light plant customers may have their own town rebates on top. The federal 25C tax credit ended with 2025 installs. Mass Save also offers a 0% HEAT Loan.
How Eversource (NSTAR Electric)'s rates change the answer
Eversource (NSTAR Electric)'s electricity price for a typical home is 14% below the Massachusetts average ($0.260 vs. $0.303 per kWh). A heat pump moves your heating from gas to electricity, so the electricity price is the biggest single factor: calculators that use a state average can get the answer wrong for your utility. At these prices, a heat pump is cheaper to run for a typical home here.
How we calculate this
Heating and cooling need
Your home's yearly heating and cooling need comes from 1991-2020 NOAA climate normals for the nearest weather station, scaled by floor area and insulation level. If you know last winter's gas use, compare it with the therms in the energy-use list above.
Equipment efficiency
New furnace 95% AFUE; new AC SEER2 13.4; standard heat pump SEER2 15.2 / HSPF2 7.8; high-efficiency cold-climate heat pump SEER2 21.5 / HSPF2 10.6. Heat pump efficiency falls as it gets colder, and in cold months part of the heat comes from backup electric strips (or your old furnace, if you keep it). Existing equipment is assumed to be a 15-20 year old 80% furnace or SEER2 9.5 AC.
Installed costs
Installed prices vary a lot, so we show a typical price and a range for a home of about 1,800 sq ft with existing ductwork, scaled for larger or smaller homes: furnace and AC together $9,000–$14,000; furnace alone $3,800–$7,000; AC alone $4,500–$9,000; standard heat pump $8,000–$15,000; high-efficiency cold-climate heat pump $11,000–$20,000; electrical panel upgrade, if needed, $1,500–$4,000. These are national figures drawn from published studies and program data (NESCAUM / Energy Solutions, Heat Pumps in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic: Costs and Market Trends (October 2024); Rewiring America, Upfront cost of home electrification (March 2024); EIA, Updated Buildings Sector Appliance and Equipment Costs and Efficiencies (2023)). The most useful number here is how much more a heat pump can cost than a like-for-like quote and still come out ahead: get quotes for both and compare.
Labor and rebates
Half of each installed price is treated as labor and scaled by the state's median HVAC installer wage relative to the U.S. median (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics). Listed rebates are subtracted when the box is ticked; per-ton rebates assume about one ton of capacity per 600 sq ft. Rebates change often and have eligibility rules, so confirm with the program before you buy.
Not included
Financing, maintenance (similar for all options), local town rebates, and changes in energy prices over time.